2024 U.S. Open expert picks (2024)

The 2024 U.S. Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for the fourth time since its first in 1999.

If you're looking for somewhere to place your bets, it's wise to look at past U.S. Opens held at Pinehurst for some potential clues.

Before winning in 1999, Payne Stewart's odds were around 25-1 pre-tournament, the 17^th lowest odds that year. Michael Campbell won in 2005 as one of the biggest underdog stories in U.S. Open history. Campbell was only the seventh winner ever to come from sectional qualifying and the second since 2000 (Lucas Glover was the other in 2009). He wasn’t even listed on most books prior to the championship and had implied odds of over 250-1 to come out on top that week.

Most recently, in the only major played at Pinehurst since the 2010 Coore and Crenshaw restoration, Martin Kaymer lapped the field on his way to an 8-shot victory with the pre-tournament odds of 40-1 (around 14^th lowest that week). What do we take from all of this data? Pinehurst can produce a wide range of outcomes, chewing up favorites and rewarding underdogs who come ready to play.

The premier championship test created by Donald Ross is known for two things: 1, its restored native areas from tee to green, which add an element of unpredictability to drives that miss the fairway and
2, its large convex greens that reward great shots and repel mediocre ones into difficult spots.

In my analysis of who might emerge as champion, I am putting a premium on approach and around the green numbers, while slightly devaluing driving accuracy. While nobody can truly proclaim themselves as an 'expert' when it comes to solving golf and picking winners on a consistent basis - the game is too fickle - I am a gambling enthusiast who likes to wager on golf. I win some. I lose some. That's golf and that's sports betting.

I enjoy looking at numbers, trends and course fits using data golf so that the wagers I place have some logic behind them. All of the odds below were the best available on oddschecker. It's always smart to shop around to find the best possible number. Here are a few of thoughts on some best bets heading into the 2024 U.S. Open:

The man is +400 for a reason. There is a very good chance he wins this week. He's won four times already - RBC Heritage, The Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and The Players Championship. His game fits every course on Earth (and probably other planets if they had courses), and with the Louisville incident behind him, I’d imagine he is in a better head space. In the last eight events, Scottie Scheffler has consistently finished in the Top 10, showcasing his form and reliability. If you just want to place a wager that almost guarantees you will be in the hunt late on Sunday, there is no reason to overthink it.

I'm passing on the second and third shortest odds in the field, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, because Rory's bottom two stats in data golf are approach and around the green. Plus, I can't picture Xander winning two in a row after his major championship breakthrough at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla last month (super scientific, I know).

All signs are pointing up with Bryson both on the course and with his popularity. His lackluster driving accuracy numbers are negated slightly with the randomness of lies found in the native areas. His short game is well above average, and, if he drives it well, he will have much shorter clubs on approach shots that need to be precise. He also recently shot a new YouTube video in a pair of knickers and long socks, perhaps a bit of foreshadowing that he could win at the same place Payne Stewart did?

Morikawa has been playing great golf on the PGA Tour since Masters week with 4 top 10s in his last six starts. His phenomenal iron play and solid around the green numbers make his game a good fit for Pinehurst. He had a chance in both the Masters and the PGA Championship earlier this year and even though his Sunday rounds were poor, he’s proven he has what it takes to finish off these major championships when he’s in contention.

There is something about Russell Henley that I love in U.S. Opens. The USGA likes to push the limits with their course setup and that seems to suit Henley. He has a great short game and solid approach play, both well above average in strokes gained, which helps the course fit. Plus, he’s flirted with this championship before when he had a share of the lead heading into the final round in 2021 at Torrey Pines South. If the winning score of this championship is in the 1-under par to 4-under range, which it very well could be, I think Henley has a decent chance to win his first major championship. At 90-1, he is a good underdog pick.

Say what you want about LIV Golf, but Burmeister has been playing the best golf of his career since joining. Data golf has him as top six statistically in both approach and around the green in the last six months. With those numbers and his tie for 12th finish in last month’s PGA Championship, he is worth a flyer at 100-1 to become the 8^th sectional qualifier to win the U.S. Open. A top 20 or top 10 play might be smarter.

Maybe you just believe lightning can strike twice and that another 5’10” New Zealand native who is in their late 30s will get their first PGA Tour win, and fifth plus worldwide victory, at a U.S. Open at Pinehurst. If that’s you, take Ryan Fox at 190-1.

A funny connection to Michael Campbell for sure, but Fox is coming off a T-7 finish at the RBC Canadian Open and may be in his best form this year. So why not? His odds to win are almost non-existent in reality, but a top-20 pick just for the heck of it could be fun.

Who are you putting your money on to win the 2024 U.S. Open? Let us know in the comments below.

Drake Dunaway grew up in Dayton, Ohio, where he started playing golf at a young age before playing collegiately at DePauw University. Recently he’s lived in Phoenix and now in Orlando, where he still tries to play once or twice a week. He’s worked in golf since 2016 and joined the GolfPass team in 2019. Follow him on Twitter @drake_dunaway